Former Indian Ambassador to the US, Arun K Singh, shared insights into the evolving relationship between India and the United States, particularly under Donald Trump’s new term as President. This blog explores his key points and explains them in simpler words, highlighting the changes and challenges ahead.
Why Trump’s Re-Election Was Surprising
Donald Trump’s re-election as President surprised many. Despite being impeached twice and facing accusations of fraud and mistreatment, he managed to win both the Electoral College and the popular vote—something he didn’t achieve in 2016. On the other side, Kamala Harris ran as a historic candidate, representing African-American, South Asian, and Indian-American identities. However, people’s concerns about issues like inflation, unemployment, and immigration outweighed these factors.
The Biden administration’s long-term policies on job creation and investment couldn’t address immediate issues like rising prices, giving Trump an advantage. He built his campaign around topics like inflation, unemployment, trade, and reducing America’s involvement in global affairs, which resonated with many voters.
What to Expect from Trump’s Second Term
This time, Trump is expected to act with more experience and control. During his first term, his team wasn’t fully prepared, and he had to work with people from the mainstream Republican Party who didn’t always agree with him. Now, he has chosen his team faster and will have a stronger grip on policymaking.
An unusual move by Trump is bypassing traditional government vetting processes for his team. Instead, he’s using private agencies, signaling his distrust of federal institutions. This approach appeals to his base, who see him as someone shaking up Washington.
The Role of Elon Musk
Elon Musk, the billionaire behind companies like Tesla and SpaceX, has played a key role in supporting Trump. Musk used his platform, X (formerly Twitter), to promote Trump’s ideas and even invested millions in his campaign. Musk’s goal is likely to secure federal benefits, like subsidies and deregulation, for his businesses.
However, Trump is known for using people strategically. While Musk and others have influence, Trump ultimately wants to be seen as the main decision-maker.
Trump’s Policy Priorities
- Ending the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Trump and his team believe the US should reduce its support for Ukraine. This could change the dynamics between Russia, China, and the US. While India maintains good relations with Russia, it doesn’t want Russia’s dependency on China to grow further.
- Tough Trade Policies: Trump’s stance that the US has been exploited in trade, especially by China, will likely continue. This includes focusing on tariffs and reducing dependence on Chinese manufacturing.
- Immigration: Immigration will remain a significant focus, with potential impacts on Indian families if stricter deportation policies are enforced.
- Middle East Strategy: Trump’s approach to the Middle East will likely emphasize support for Israel. This could affect India, given its strong energy and employment ties to the Gulf region.
China’s Role and Challenges
China dominates key global industries like critical minerals and artificial intelligence (AI). This makes the US cautious about its trade and technology policies. India’s partnership with the US becomes vital in countering China’s growing influence. The US sees India as a natural ally with its large population and skilled workforce, particularly in technology and semiconductors.
Strengthening India-US Relations
India-US ties have grown steadily since 2000. Here are some highlights:
- The US is India’s largest trading partner, and American investments in India total $60 billion.
- Indian companies have invested over $40 billion in the US economy.
- Indian-origin doctors treat one in seven patients in the US, showing the integration of the Indian community.
- India hosts 1,700 Global Capability Centers, where multinational companies develop cutting-edge technology. About 60% of these belong to US firms.
As the US faces competition from China, a strong partnership with India is seen as essential for maintaining its global leadership. India’s talent in areas like semiconductor design and research further strengthens this bond.
Looking Ahead
While Trump’s policies bring new opportunities, they also come with uncertainties. For India, a stronger relationship with the US could mean more collaboration in technology, trade, and defense. However, challenges like immigration policies and global political shifts need to be navigated carefully.
In conclusion, the evolving dynamics between India, the US, and other global powers highlight the importance of strategic partnerships. A strong India-US relationship not only benefits both nations but also contributes to a more balanced global order.