The fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 8 marked a historic turning point for Syria. Over the past ten days, Syria has been navigating the complex and often chaotic aftermath of this regime collapse. Mohammed al-Bashir, head of the interim government, has been tasked with guiding the country through this volatile period while addressing both internal challenges and international concerns. At the same time, the role of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that played a key part in toppling Assad’s regime, has been crucial yet controversial.
Stabilizing a Shattered Nation
Since taking office, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir has focused on unifying Syria’s fractured society and seeking legitimacy on the global stage. His transitional government is set to remain in power until March 1, 2025, giving him a narrow window to consolidate power and build a foundation for Syria’s future.
Internal Efforts: Unity and Reform
The interim administration has taken bold steps to integrate all factions that opposed Assad into a unified defense structure under a new Ministry of Defense. Leaders from HTS and the former Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), who governed rebel-held Idlib, are spearheading these efforts. The new government has already begun disbanding old structures associated with the HTS in favor of a national framework. For example, the Damascus City Council now operates under new leadership, signaling an effort to distance governance from sectarian or ideological control.
External Focus: Gaining International Support
The interim administration has reached out to international actors to lift sanctions and rebuild Syria’s economy. HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has held discussions with diplomats from major Western countries and the United Nations. Humanitarian access through previously restricted border crossings has been expanded, a move welcomed by the UN Secretary General. However, lingering distrust persists. The international community is wary of granting full recognition to a government closely tied to HTS, a group with a history of extremism.
The Role of HTS: From Insurgency to Governance
HTS has emerged as a powerful player in post-Assad Syria. Having governed Idlib since 2017 under the Syrian Salvation Government, the group brings experience in administration and crisis management, including handling the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastating 2023 earthquakes.
Challenges for HTS
HTS faces two significant hurdles:
- Balancing Islamism with Governance: HTS must reconcile its ideological roots with the practical needs of governing a diverse and war-weary nation. This requires adopting internationally acceptable norms while managing internal pressures from hardline factions.
- Regional Conflicts: Tensions with Turkey and Israel could undermine the fragile stability. Turkey’s potential military actions against Kurdish forces in northern Syria, and Israel’s recent occupation of the Golan Heights, pose serious threats to Syria’s sovereignty and reconstruction efforts.
Risks and Future Challenges
As Syria attempts to move forward, the risks are immense.
Jihadist threats remain a significant concern. If HTS moderates its Islamist stance to gain international support, it risks alienating its hardline base. This could create opportunities for more extremist groups like ISIS to resurge. Ongoing conflicts with Turkey and Israel could escalate, complicating Syria’s transition. Years of war and international sanctions have left Syria’s economy in ruins, requiring massive international aid and investment to rebuild.
A Fragile Beginning
Syria’s transition from decades of authoritarian rule under Assad to a fragile interim government represents both a moment of hope and a period of uncertainty. While efforts to unify the country and engage with the world are underway, significant challenges lie ahead. The coming months will determine whether Syria can achieve lasting peace or descend into further chaos.